Deal-maker Trump talked up his chat with Putin, but his hopes for a fast ceasefire were shot down

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are both hailing their phone call as a significant step towards peace in Ukraine.

Of course, that doesn't mean it was.

Both men have reason to portray the call as a success.

Trump has a political incentive to look like he's making progress, after repeatedly promising — with characteristic hyperbole — to end the war in a day.

Putin has a strategic incentive to keep Trump engaged in talks, so he can continue his brutal invasion while managing the risk of provoking the ire of this new, friendly American administration.

But Trump did not actually get what he wanted out of his chat with Putin.

His proposal for a full and immediate 30-day ceasefire was rejected.

The compromise deal, on the face of it, promises little change on the ground.

And the conditions that Putin insists would be required for a permanent truce have set up pretty grim prospects of negotiating one.

Power play

The headline outcome from the verbal deal struck by the two presidents was a pause on attacks on energy infrastructure.

Ukraine's power plants have been frequent targets of Russian strikes.

The resulting blackouts have enabled Russia to weaponise Ukraine's dangerously cold winters and intensify the suffering of millions of civilians.

Obviously, if energy infrastructure is spared from attacks for a period, that's a positive for Ukrainians.

But as an offering from invaders who have slaughtered thousands and displaced millions, and are continuing the killing, it's hardly a major gift.

In fact, this deal serves Putin's self-interest.

Ukraine has been using its advanced drone technology to hit deep into Russia, targeting oil refineries as a way of fighting back.

Halting strikes on energy targets could hobble it somewhat.

Then there's the question of whether Putin would stick to his word.

As Ukraine's president tried to stress to Trump at the White House recently — before he was berated and booted out — Putin historically does not respect peace deals.

The other main element of this new deal is, essentially, an agreement to keep talking.

"These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East," the White House said.

Trump later said there was an "understanding that we will be working quickly to have a complete ceasefire".

But Russia's post-call statement showed any such understanding had a major asterisk attached.

The Kremlin said a "key condition" in negotiations for permanent peace was "the complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv".

In other words, Russia will agree to peace if Ukraine's allies agree to leave it exposed to attack.

They're terms that Ukraine's European allies have already rejected.

When Trump was asked about this key condition later, he said Putin didn't mention it during the call.

"We talked about a lot of things, but aid was never discussed," he told Fox News.

Devil in lack of detail

As is Trump's preference, negotiations over Ukraine's future once again took place without Ukraine's involvement.

A week earlier, Ukraine had agreed to America's 30-day ceasefire proposal, but only after the US threatened to cut the country loose and allow Putin to have his way with it.

After the call, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would, again, agree to what Trump and Putin had come up with.

But he was keen to hear from Trump about exactly what it meant.

"I think it will be right that we will have a conversation with President Trump and we will know in detail what the Russians offered the Americans or what the Americans offered the Russians," Zelenskyy said, according to a translation by news agency Reuters.

And he warned, again, that Russia was simply trying to drag out talks and prolong the war.

His scepticism is shared by plenty of experts on Russia familiar with Putin's tactics.

There are still a lot of unanswered questions about how the compromise deal will work.

Neither country's official statement outlined a lot of detail.

There's no reason to think that Russia halting strikes on Ukrainian energy targets equates to fewer strikes on Ukrainian targets overall.

And within hours of the call, Zelenskyy said dozens of Russian drones were attacking infrastructure in Ukraine again.

"It is precisely such night attacks by Russia that destroy our energy systems, our infrastructure, the normal life of Ukrainians," Zelenskyy posted on the Telegram messaging app.

"Today, Putin de facto rejected the proposal for a complete ceasefire.

"It would be right for the world to reject in response any attempts by Putin to drag out the war."