Forde Federal Election 2025 Results

This electorate was one of the new Queensland seats created with the expansion of the Parliament at the 1984 election. It is named after Frank Forde, who served as Prime Minister for 8 days in 1945 between the death of John Curtin and the election of Ben Chifley as new Labor leader.

The first member for Forde elected in 1984 was Dr David Watson, but he was defeated in 1987. Watson went on to serve in the Queensland parliament, being the Liberal Leader unfortunate enough to lead the party to disastrous defeat at the 2001 state election.

Watson was defeated in Forde at the 1987 election by Labor's Mary Crawford, winning her seat as Labor profited in Queensland from the National Party's disastrous 'Joh for Canberra' campaign. Crawford increased her majority at subsequent elections, but her hard work was wiped out by a redistribution ahead of the 1996 election. She stood no hope of re-election in the face of a landslide defeat for Labor, Forde recording a swing of more than 11% against Labor and electing Liberal Kay Elson.

Elson became one of the key mortgage belt Liberal MPs who did so much to help re-elect the Howard government in 1998 and keep Labor in opposition for almost another decade. Elson's retirement coincided with the end of the Howard government, and Forde recorded a 14.4% swing to Labor in 2007, electing Labor's Brett Raguse as Forde recorded the state's largest swing.

Defending a marginal seat in 2010, Raguse had little chance of victory in the face of a state wide swing against Labor. Forde recorded a 5.0% swing to the LNP, electing current MP Bert Van Manen.

Van Manen was re-elected in 2013 against a very high profile Labor opponent. In the first flush of Kevin Rudd's return as Prime Minister, former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie was lured into becoming the Labor candidate for Forde. His presence on the ballot paper had little impact on the outcome, Forde recording a 2.8% swing against Labor, a percentage point higher than the state swing. There was a correction in 2016, a 3.8% swing to Labor leaving Van Manen with only a narrow margin for the 2019 election. Instead of facing a tight contest, the collapse in Labor's Queensland support during the campaign delivered an 8% swing in van Manen's favour. He was re-elected again in 2022 despite a swing to Labor.

(Victories by a party of government are indicated by thick coloured underlining.)

LNP majorities were recorded at 21 of the 34 polling places used at the 2019 election. The LNP results ranged from 41.9% at Marsden State High School in Waterford West to 67.9% at Carbrook State School. LNP support was generally strongest at the southern end of the electorate nearer the Gold Coast.


(Click on polling place for results)

The graph below shows how Mary Crawford was wiped out at the 1996 election. Over three elections she increased the Labor margin to 8%, only for that to be wiped out by the redistribution ahead of a devastating swing to the Liberal Party at the 1996 election. Forde's location in a south-east Queensland population growth hot-spot makes its political fortunes hostage to redistributions.

Results 1983-2019