Griffith (Key Seat) Federal Election 2025 Results

Griffith was first contested at the 1934 election and is named after Sir Samuel Griffith, former Queensland Premier (1883-88, 1890-93), one of the drafters of the Australian Constitution, and Australia's first High Court Chief Justice (1903-17).

This seat was the first of three held in Federal Parliament by Liberal MP Don Cameron, who represented Griffith (1966-77), Fadden (1977-83) and Moreton (1984-90).

Griffith was held for Labor by the popular Ben Humphreys from 1977 until his retirement at the 1996 election. Failing to succeed Humphries at that election was Kevin Rudd, but he returned to win at his second attempt in 1998 when some political balance was restored to the Queensland electoral map.

Rudd substantially increased his majority at subsequent elections, tending to local constituency work despite a heavy Labor frontbench role, first in Foreign Affairs and later as Opposition Leader and then Prime Minister. The swing against Rudd in 2010 was 3.9%, less than the state swing in Queensland, and leaving Griffith as Labor's safest seat in the state. The swing against Rudd was an above average 5.5% at the 2013 election.

Rudd returned to Parliament after the change of government but soon made his valedictory speech and resigned. Labor's Terri Butler retained Griffith at a by-election held in February 2014 despite a small swing to the Coalition. There was another small swing to the Coalition in 2016 before Griffith became one of the few Queensland seats to record a swing to Labor in 2019.

Then came the 2022 election and Terri Butler slipped to third in the contest. Instead of becoming a Minister in the new Albanese government, Butler's contribution to the election was the preferences that elected Max Chandler-Mather as the first Greens MP for Griffith.

(Victories by a party of government are indicated by thick coloured underlining.)

Griffith's three-way contest in 2022 highlights the difficulty of using one number to describe the marginality of a seat. The final preference count in 2022 saw the Greens win with a margin of 10.5% versus the LNP. The alternate two-party preferred count would have produced a Labor margin of 11.1% versus the LNP, Green preference flowing more strongly to Labor than the reverse. On both counts Griffith was a clear 'left' seat in a contest against the LNP, but the final count was preceded by an undercard event between Labor and the Greens to finish as the LNP's competitor. What was unusual with Griffith compared to Brisbane and Ryan was that the undercard was not about who finished second to the LNP. The Greens were in first place with Labor's sitting MP Terri Butler having a disastrous result and finishing third.

On first preferences in 2022, the Greens led with 34.6%, LNP second on 30.8% with Labor third on 28.9%. One Nation and the UAP together had the remaining 5.7% of the vote. The distributioin of their preferences produced a three-way count of Greens 36.4%, LNP 33.9% and Labor 29.7%.

Which provides a two further estimated margins for Griffith. Based on the three-candidate preferred count, a swing from the Greens to Labor of 3.9% would be enough to see Labor finish ahead of the Greens and defeat the LNP on Green preferences. Or a 2.1% from Liberal top Labor put Labor into second place and defeat the Greens on LNP preferences. A fascinating case study on how the order of exclusion can impact the outcome of a contest under preferential voting.

That Griffith is one of Labor's safe Queensland seats is clearly shown by the graph below of two-party preferred results comparing Griffith to Queensland as a whole. Through most of the last four decades Labor's two-party result in Griffith was around 10 percentage points higher than Labor's state-wide figure.

Results 1983-2019

As with Brisbane across the river, two-party preferred analysis misses the real trend in party voting, the rise of support for the Greens. Comparing first preference vote support can be complicated by the presence of other parties and candidates. The chart below gets around this problem by plotting results since 2004 at the final exclusion point in the distribution of preferences, the so-called three-candidate preferred (3CP) count between the LNP, Labor and the Greens. It shows a continuous decline in Labor 3CP% since 2007, culminating in Labor falling behind the Greens and dropping to third place at the 2022 election. Over six elections there has been a 25 percentage point of drift from Labor to the Greens. It is a similar trend to that seen in nearby Brisbane and Ryan.

First Preference Results 1983-2022

Griffith remains an underlying 'left' seat, but the left vote is more evenly split between Labor and the Greens than it was in the past. It remains a seat that the LNP can only win at a landslide election, but there is clearly more competition between Labor and the Greens over what order the two parties finish to creat a final contest with the LNP. In 2022 it was the Greens that finished ahead.

The Greens recorded two-candidate preferred majorities at all 36 polling places used, rising above 70% in eight. Results ranged from 51.6% at the Bulimba Community Centre to 79.5% at the Latvian Hall in Woolloongabba.


(Click on polling place for results)