Melbourne Federal Election 2025 Results

In the north loses Clifton Hill to Cooper and Brunswick East, Carlton North and Fitzroy North to Wills. The seat now crosses the Yarra to take in South Yarra and Prahran from Macnamara and Higgins. The Green margin versus Labor declines from 10.2% to 6.5% because the change transfers areas with a Greens after preferences vote of 62.5% to Cooper and Wills, replaced by areas from Higgins and Macnamara where the Greens finished third. On primary votes the Green vote slips from 49.6% to 44.7%, which explains the margin decline but does not correct for the Greens potentially polling more strongly in the areas added from Higgins. See polling place result map below for detail of the boundary change.

The electorate of Melbourne has existed since Federation and was held by Labor continuously from 1904 until the 2010 election. Former Labor members include Bill Maloney 1904-1940, Arthur Calwell 1940-1972, Ted Innes 1972-1983, Gerry Hand 1983-1993 and Lindsay Tanner 1993-2010.

Support for the Greens rose through the first decade of the twenty first century, polling 15.7% in 2001, 19.0% in 2004, 22.8% and finishing second after preferences in 2007, and 36.2% and achieving victory on Liberal preferences in 2010. This made Adam Bandt the first Green to win a seat in the House of Representatives at a general election. Michael Organ had previously won Cunningham for the Greens in 2002, but this was at a by-election.

Bandt increased his primary vote further to 42.6% in 2013, allowing him to overcome the decision of the Liberal Party to reverse past preference recommendations and put Labor ahead of the Greens. Bandt was easily re-elected in 2016 and 2019 when Labor's vote slipped to third place behind the Liberal candidate and again in 2022 when Labor returned to second place.

(Victories by a party of government are indicated by thick coloured underlining.)

Analysing first preference votes can be complicated by presence of independents and minor party support. So the chart below draws on the three-candidate preferred (3CP) vote at elections since 2001. The 3CP vote is derived from votes before the last exclusion in the distribution of preferences, producing a measure of Labor, Liberal and Greens support after excluding and distributing preferences from all other candidates.

First Preference Results 1983-2019

The Greens passed the Liberals on the 3CP count in 2007 but without endangering Labor's grip on the seat, Labor above 50% at the same point. The retirement of long serving Labor MP Lindsay Tanner in 2010 produced a further switch in first preference support, the Greens' Adam Bandt finishing a close second to Labor on the 3CP count before Liberal preference flowing at a rate above 80% elected him as the new member for Melbourne. Bandt would not have won had the Liberal Party recommended preferences for Labor ahead of the Greens, as the party has done at elections since 2013.

With its new preference recommendation in place, Liberal preferences flowed 66% to Labor in 2013, not enough to defeat Bandt who moved well ahead of Labor at the 3CP count and was able to easily win election on leakage of Liberal preferences. In the neighbouring seats of Batman and Cooper, the Liberal preference decision prevented Green wins from similar votes to Bandt at the 2010 election.

The 3CP vote graph above is reflected in many inner-Melbourne electorates, with a rise in Green support mirrored by a decline in Labor support. But Melbourne differs from other electorates in two ways. First, the trend started and was strongest in Melbourne before it was followed in Batman, Wills, Melbourne Ports and Higgins. Second, other electorates saw a drop in Green support and rise for Labor at the 2019 election where Green support rose further in Melbourne. This may be due to Melbourne having a sitting Green MP in Adam Bandt, or be related to Labor pulling out of campaigning after disendorsing its candidate. Labor moved back into second place on the 3CP vote on the election of the Albanese government in 2022.

The polling places south of the Yarra have been re-calculated to estimate a Labor-Greens finish based on 2022 first preference votes and preference flows.


(Click on polling place for results)

The red line in the chart below highlights how strong Labor's two-party preferred vote is in Melbourne compared to Victoria as a whole, consistently 15-20% higher. The Green line plots the Green two-candidate preferred vote since 2007. Labor was in the final preference count 2007-2013 and again in 2022. The Liberals finished second in 2016 and 2019. This explains the dog legs in the Greens 2CP line, the strong flow of preferences from the excluded Labor candidate boosting the Greens' 2CP vote in 2016 and 2019, but the distribution of Liberal preferences favouring the Labor Party depressing the Green 2CP% in 2013 and 2022.

Results 1983-2019